Casino’s revenue projections praised for accuracy

By Nicole Montesano

Smoke Signals staff writer     

Revenue for Spirit Mountain Casino ended 2025 close to 1.5% less than projected, a level of accuracy that drew praise from members of Tribal Council.

“I think that one or two percent is within a margin of error and their accuracy and ability to do that is amazing, and I raise my hands to them for that,” Tribal Council member Tonya Gleason-Shepek said during a Legislative Action Committee meeting.

Council member Kathleen George said she agreed.

“In some ways, it’s easier and it’s safer for executives to under project and over deliver,” she said. “And then you look awesome. ‘Every month, look, we’re half a million dollars over budget. Some months, we’re two million dollars over budget.’ And so that’s safer for an executive. But it is not going to provide the people that they work for, which is our Tribe and all our Tribal members really, the most accurate numbers that can be produced. So again, I just want to kind of give them credit for really providing the most accurate numbers.”

Spirit Mountain Casino CEO Camille Mercier said in an email that, “After 30 years, the casino has become significantly more sophisticated in how it measures performance, evaluates economic factors that influence the business and understands seasonality within our market. Advances in technology have helped us as operators by improving forecasting, analyzing volume, identifying peak periods and minimizing risk.”

All that, she noted, has made it significantly easier to provide highly accurate revenue forecasts, although those will unlikely ever be perfect.

“There are still external factors beyond our control,” she said. “For example, a snowstorm or news reports of road closures can have a detrimental effect on visitation despite even the best planning.”

A significant amount of analysis goes into each year’s forecast.

“Basically, staff budget each year by combining historical performance data, market insight and strategic priorities into a realistic financial plan,” Mercier said. “They begin by analyzing past results across gaming and non-gaming areas, looking closely at seasonality, demand patterns and marketing effectiveness to establish a reliable baseline. From there, they factor in external conditions such as the economic outlook, competition and regulatory changes, often building multiple scenarios to prepare for uncertainty.”

In addition, she said, “Our budgeting process is also closely tied to strategy, ensuring resources support priorities like capital improvements, technology investments and guest experience enhancements. Departments develop their own projections for revenue, labor and expenses, which then aligns into an overall plan. Importantly, the business must remain flexible and agile in order to pivot—acknowledging that factors like weather, market shifts or unexpected competition can impact results. Ongoing monitoring throughout the year allows us to compare performance to budget and pivot quickly when needed, keeping the operation both disciplined and agile.”